Forecasting & Predictive Models

I use state-of-the-art forecasting and predictive techniques:

  • Forecast economic and political variables of the U.S. and Latin-America Economies. I have been invited by Focus Economics to be part of a select group of professional forecasters that contribute with monthly forecasts on Latin-American and the Caribbean economies. As a result I was selected to receiveFocus Economics Analyst Forecast Award: Top forecaster Guatemala #1 (GDP) in 2016, Panama # 2 (Inflation) in 2016, top forecasters Dominican Republic #3 (Inflation) in 2015
  • Predict the probability of recession in the U.S. economy. Check out our dashboard to see the different variables I use to predict the next recession in the U.S.
  • Predict the behavior of consumers (marketing) and voter (political campaigns) to optimize targeting and resources. I have worked with political consultants, helping them to optimize micro-targeting, using sophisticated methods to compute the probability that an individual vote for their candidates. These models uses individual data taken from simple surveys, such as age, marital status, gender and education level and can also be helpful in marketing.
  • Predict the probability of  banking crisis and bank failures. Using different macro and financial variables, I have been able to predict the failure of banks. I also use this models to calculate the optimal size of the deposit insurance fund in Venezuela.
  • Predict the probability of success of crowdfunding projects. I am collected data from the projects to predict which of them are going to reach the fund target.