Venezuela Monthly Inflation

Venezuela: Monthly Inflation- Historical & ForecastAnnual inflation will be around 2.9 million % in 2018. With such acceleration of prices, inflation rate in 2019 could reach 4,099 million %.  I don’t see any change in fiscal and monetary policy that could lead to a stop in hyperinflation expectations.

Dashboard: U.S. Economy probability of recession

What is the U.S. Economy probability of recession? Currently = zero.

In this dashboard I show three different ways to measure it:

1) Yield curve: we can see that the 10-years-3-month spread has been a good predictor in advance. However we must be cautious of false alarms.

2) Smoothed probabilities (orange line): this indicator developed by Chauvet and Piger (2008) based on the four coincident variables: industrial production, non-farm payroll employment, manufacture and trade sales, and real personal income excluding transfers.

3) Google searchers: I used a combination of several Google searches including: jobs, unemployment welfare, bankruptcy, real estate listing, industrial machinery, coupons, apparel among other. The methodology uses principal components as independent variables.